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Box Office Wizard (10.21.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s Movie Box Office Prediction Contest. Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

This is Week 39. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comments Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comments section qualify. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 
-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).

 

Top Five From Last Weekend

1. Real Steel – $16.2 M … $51.7 M 
2. Footloose – $15.5 M … $15.5 
3. The Thing – $8.4 M … $8.4 M 
4. The Ides of March – $7.1 M … $21.7 M 
5. Dolphin Tale – $6.2 M … $58.5 M

Week #38 Wizard(s): Everyone – 2 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor – 105 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian – 55%

Real Steel surprised with a good return, but it was The Big Year that messed all the copycats up. It barely hit the Top 10.

WIZARD LEADERBOARD 

Cinemus the Predictor – 105 (100/190 – 53%)
Herpious Derpious – 102 (97/190 – 51%)
Kieran – 86 (86/185 – 46%)
Simonius Saysian – 82 (77/140 – 55%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm – 20 (15/35 – 43%)
PeeWee the Purple – 9 (4/20 – 20%)
MacGumblebug the Third – 9 (4/10) – 40%)
Julian – 7 (7/15 – 48%)
Max A – 5 (5/10 – 50%)
Alex M – 3 (3/15 – 20%)


BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME

2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays – 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C – 97 pts in 34 weeks


New Contenders this Weekend
 

Paranormal Activity 3
Directed by Henry Joost, Ariel Schulman
Written by Michael R. Perry, Oren Peli (characters)
Starring: Chloe Csengery, Jessica Tyler Brown, Christopher Nicholas Smith
Genre: Horror
Distributor: Paramount
Release: 3,321 theaters 
 

The Three Musketeers
Directed by Paul W.S. Anderson
Written by Alex Litvak and Andrew Davies, Alexandre Dumas (novel)
Starring: Logan Lerman, Matthew Macfadyen, Ray Stevenson, Luke Evans
Genre: Action
Distributor: Summit
Release: 3,017 theaters 

Johnny English Reborn
Directed by Oliver Parker
Written by William Davies and Hamish McColl, Robert Wade and Neal Purvis (characters)
Starring: Rowan Atkinson, Rosamund Pike, Dominic West
Genre: Action Comedy

Distributor: Universal
Release: 1,551 theaters 

The Mighty Macs
Directed by Tim Chambers
Written by Tim Chambers, Anthony Gargano
Starring: Carla Gugino, David Boreanaz, Ellen Burstyn
Genre: Sports Drama

Distributor: Freestyle Releasing
Release: 975 theaters 

Box Office Predictions

Well, I got a foot in my mouth last week, but no doubts on who’s walking out on top after this weekend: Paranormal Activity 3 should do at least as well as its predecessor, so $40 million. Horror fans have not been showing up lately, so expect a mass exodus to theaters.

The Three Musketeers has to be good for second. How high is the question. A hugely recognizable cast and some of Paul W.S. Anderson and Milla Jovovich’s fans are bound to indulge. A no-name musketeer film titled The Musketeer managed $10 million back in the early 2000s (I saw it opening weekend, so I would know), so that should be the minimum. With competition from Real Steel, I see $15 million, maybe closer to $20 million though that’s optimistic.

Real Steel should hold up nicely in third place with around $10 million as it’s managing to get family numbers and good word of mouth. Footloose should be just behind it with $7-8 million.

The Ides of March gets my vote to remain in the top five with $5 million. I simply can’t put money down on Johnny English Reborn, simply out of principle. Mediocre newcomers have also burned me in predictions this year.

1. Paranormal Activity 3
2. The Three Musketeers
3. Real Steel
4. Footloose
5. The Ides of March

 

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