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Box Office Wizard (10.7.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s Movie Box Office Prediction Contest. Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

This is Week 37. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comments Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comments section qualify. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 
-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).

 

Top Five From Last Weekend

1. Dolphin Tale – $13.9 M … $37.1 M 
2. Moneyball – $12 M … $38 M 
3. The Lion King (in 3D) – $10.6 M … $79.2 M 
4. Courageous – $9 M … $9 M 
5. 50/50 – $8.6 M … $8.6 M

Week #36 Wizard(s): Herpious and Simonious – 1 pt
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor – 99 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian – 55%

A brutal week. Simonius had Dolphin Tale for a point and Herpious had 50/50 in fifth place. Kieran and I got blanked.

WIZARD LEADERBOARD 

Cinemus the Predictor – 99 (94/180 – 52%)
Herpious Derpious – 96 (91/180 – 51%)
Kieran – 80 (80/175 – 45%)
Simonius Saysian – 76 (71/130 – 55%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm – 20 (15/35 – 43%)
PeeWee the Purple – 9 (4/20 – 20%)
MacGumblebug the Third – 9 (4/10) – 40%)
Julian – 7 (7/15 – 48%)
Max A – 5 (5/10 – 50%)
Alex M – 3 (3/15 – 20%)


BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME

2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays – 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C – 97 pts in 34 weeks


New Contenders this Weekend
 

Real Steel
Directed by Shawn Levy
Written by John Gatins, Dan Gilroy, Jeremy Leven
Starring: Hugh Jackman, Evangeline Lilly, Dakota Goyo, Anthony Mackie
Genre: Sports Action/Drama
Distributor: Buena Vista
Release: 3,440 theaters 
 

The Ides of March
Directed by George Clooney
Written by George Clooney, Grant Haslov, Beau Willimon (also play, “Farragut North”)
Starring: Ryan Gosling, George Clooney, Paul Giamatti, Evan Rachel Wood
Genre: Drama/Thriller
Distributor: Sony/Columbia
Release: 2,199 theaters 

Box Office Predictions

For once I feel pretty good about this weekend. For one thing, there are only two newcomers, and all the returnees are poised to make no more than $10 million.

Real Steel should wear the crown this weekend. It has all the pieces to be a success with elements of action, sci-fi, sports drama and family drama. That’s a wide demographic and it should show in better-than-expected numbers, especially with decent reviews. Most predict it modestly, but I think $30 million could be reached.

The Ides of March should have no problem making second place with $10-15 million. It has George Clooney and a strong ensemble cast behind him. We’re likely not talking Moneyball numbers and Clooney doesn’t draw like Pitt (separately, that is), but it’s hard to envision a returning film beating “Ides.”

Last week’s winner, Dolphin Tale, should stay up at number three and Moneyball right behind it. Positive word of mouth will continue to keep the numbers up for these two films. The only change I see is Courageous holding on and beating The Lion King. With the DVD out and a 50 percent drop in sales last weekend, Disney should pull it out of several theaters, keeping it out of the Top 5.

1. Real Steel
2. The Ides of March
3. Dolphin Tale
4. Moneyball
5. Courageous

 

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