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Box Office Wizard (11.5.10)

It’s Box Office Wizard! Predict which five movies will place in the top five of this weekend’s U.S. domestic box office. It’s that easy. I will make my own predictions here and explain them to you each week to give you some sort of reference point. It’s then your job to enter a comment with your top five. 

This is Week #26. It’s never too late to start! The first week you predict is the first week you enter the Box Office Wizard competition. For every correct prediction each week, you earn a point. Points are cumulative. The game keeps going on and on forever and ever except we will reset everyone back to zero — let’s say — once a year. Each week there will be at least two winners: a weekend wizard for the users who guessed the most correct and a box office wizard for the user with the most points to date. The goal is to be Box Office Wizard for as long as you can. I’ll pick an end date for the year at some point and then whoever has the most becomes the year’s box office wizard. Maybe by the team that happens, Player Affinity will be so wildly popular that we’ll have some cool free stuff to give the Box Office Wizard of the Year. Regardless, it’s worth giving a try. What do you have to lose?

 

Last Week’s Top Five

  1. 1. Saw 3D – $22.5 M (weekend) … $22.5 (gross)
  2. 2. Paranormal Activity 2 – $16.5 M … $65.6 M
  3. 3. RED – $10.7 M … $58.8 M
  4. 4. Jackass 3D – $8.5 M … $101.6 M
  5. 5. Hereafter – $6.4 M … $22.2 M

Week #25 Wizard(s):  SimonSays – 5 pts
Current Box Office Wizard(s): Steven C, SimonSays – 69 Pts 

Most of you went with me, in fact all of you but Simon, who expertly tracked that “Jackass” would fall much further in its third weekend and “RED” would jump it.
 

ALL-TIME TOTALS
Steven C – 69
SimonSays – 69
TheGamerGeek – 67
Sallas – 51

Kieran – 26
Olly H – 14
Dustin C – 10
Max A – 9

Joseph – 6
OracleofGame – 6
Dinah – 5
Dementious – 5 
HSXGirl – 4
Harmonica – 3

Matthew D – 3
Julian – 2
  
Lydia – 2

Remember, only submissions in the comment section count and they must be made by 12:00 PM SATURDAY. Check our weekly recap posting late afternoon every Monday for the box office figures of the weekend. Remember, we count the WEEKEND ACTUALS, not the ESTIMATES announced on Sundays. On 4-day weekends, only the 3-day total matters.

Here are this week’s new contenders followed by my predictions.

New Contenders this Weekend

Megamind
Directed by Tom McGrath
Written by Alan J. Schoolcraft, Brent Simons
Starring: (voices) Will Ferrell, Brad Pitt, Tina Fey, Jonah Hillssell
Genre: Animation/Family

Distributor: Paramount/DreamWorks
Release: 3,944

Due Date
Directed by Todd Phillips
Written by Alan R. Cohen, Alan Freedland, Adam Sztykiel, Todd Phillips
Starring: Robert Downey Jr., Zach Galifianakis, Jamie Foxx, Michelle Monaghan
Genre: Comedy

Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release: 3,355

For Colored Girls
Directed by Tyler Perry
Written by Tyler Perry, Ntozake Shange (play)
Starring: Janet Jackson, Anika Noni Rose, Whoopi Goldberg
Genre: Drama

Distributor: Lionsgate
Release: 2,127

Conviction
Directed by Tony Goldwyn
Written by Pamela Grey
Starring: Hillary Swank, Sam Rockwell, Melissa Leo
Genre: Drama

Distributor: Fox Searchlight
Release:672

 

 My Top Five Predictions 

The first weeks of November are a battleground. Usually an animated film takes the first weekend (as we have here again) and then an action film tries to come out on top the next week up until the Holiday film dominance. This weekend, Due Date marks one of the first anticipated R-rated comedies to get a release at this time of year. So how will it all play out?

Most people are going to look at the $44 million The Hangover made and project it for similar numbers, but time of year is huge. I definitely think the film will have one of the better comedy openings, especially for an R-rated film, but I like Megamind for the top spot. The least successful animated film in this slot in the last five years has been Flushed Away and that earned almost $20 million. I think Megamind can nab $35 – $40. I’ll then pencil in Due Date for an impressive $30-35 million haul.

Few films are easier to predict than a Tyler Perry film. His dramas tend to earn closer to $20 million, so I imagine For Colored Girls will follow suit. That’s all I have to say on that.

Saw 3D will fall the usual horror amount to right around $10 million if not a shade less. It will still beat strong returns from RED, which should have fifth this week as Paranormal Activity 2 will slip below it most certainly.

  1. 1. Megamind
  2. 2. Due Date
  3. 3. For Colored Girls
  4. 4. Saw 3D
  5. 5. RED 

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