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Box Office Wizard (12.3.10)

Not a gift idea maven? Try being a Box Office Wizard instead. All you have to do is predict which five movies will place in the top five of this weekend’s U.S. domestic box office. It’s that easy. I will make my own predictions here and explain them to you each week to give you some sort of reference point. It’s then your job to enter a comment with your top five. 

This is Week #30. It’s never too late to start! The first week you predict is the first week you enter the Box Office Wizard competition. For every correct prediction each week, you earn a point. Points are cumulative. The game keeps going on and on forever and ever except we will reset everyone back to zero — let’s say — once a year. Each week there will be at least two winners: a weekend wizard for the users who guessed the most correct and a box office wizard for the user with the most points to date. The goal is to be Box Office Wizard for as long as you can. I’ll pick an end date for the year at some point and then whoever has the most becomes the year’s box office wizard. Maybe by the team that happens, Player Affinity will be so wildly popular that we’ll have some cool free stuff to give the Box Office Wizard of the Year. Regardless, it’s worth giving a try. What do you have to lose?

 

Last Week’s Top Five

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1- $76.2M (weekend)…$220.3M (gross)
2. Tangled – $69.0M…$69.0M
3. Megamind – $17.5M…$130.4M
4. Burlesque – $17.1M…$17.1M 
5. Unstoppable – $16.1M…$60.7M

Week #29 Wizard(s):  Steven C, Simon Says – 4 pts
Current Box Office Wizard(s): SimonSays – 82 Pts 

Everyone failed to predict that Unstoppable would finish in the top five, with people trying various combinations in the four and five spot. Simon and I picked Burlesque which separated us from the pack.
 

ALL-TIME TOTALS
SimonSays – 82
Steven C – 81

TheGamerGeek – 69
Sallas – 63
Kieran – 38
Max A – 18
Olly H – 14
Dustin C – 10
Dementious – 6 

Joseph – 6
OracleofGame – 6
Dinah – 5
HSXGirl – 4
Harmonica – 3
Matthew D – 3
Julian – 2
  
Lydia – 2

Remember, only submissions in the comment section count and they must be made by 12:00 PM SATURDAY. Check our weekly recap posting late afternoon every Monday for the box office figures of the weekend. Remember, we count the WEEKEND ACTUALS, not the ESTIMATES announced on Sundays. On 4-day weekends, only the 3-day total matters.

Here are this week’s new contenders followed by my predictions.

New Contenders this Weekend

The Warrior’s Way
Written and Directed by Sngmoo Lee
Starring: Dong-gun Jang, Geoffrey Rush, Kate Bosworth, Danny Huston
Genre: Martial Arts/Western
Distributor: Relativity
Release: 1,622


 

 My Top Five Predictions 

The biggest box-office hangover occurs after Thanksgiving. Even films doing well previously fall by at least 45 percent from the Thanksgiving weekend total, but there should still be some stirring and a bit of movement in the top five.

Most notably, Tangled will pass Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 and quite easily. The two finished basically tied for first last week and Tangled has all the momentum going into its second week with huge approval ratings and great word of mouth. “Potter” fans have by and large seen the new film at this point, so expect $20 million tops to $25 million for Tangled.

Beyond the top two this week, however, is where it gets ugly. The difference between third place and eight place last weekend was about $5.5 million. Of all the contenders, Megamind is the oldest and facing competition from Tangled. That’s why I expect it to slip and Burlesque to slide into third with $6 million. Megamind will fall just short.

In the battle for last, I’m giving no love to the new guy and picking Unstoppable to retain its position with somewhere in the $5 million range. It’s playing in far more theaters than the other movies that would compete with it, so it maintains the upper hand. Martial arts films tend to have very little luck, so The Warrior’s Way ought to make $4 or 5 million tops.

1. Tangled
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1
3. Burlesque
4. Megamind
5. Unstoppable 

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