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Box Office Wizard (8.12.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s Movie Box Office Prediction Contest. Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

This is Week 29. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comments Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comments section qualify. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 
-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).

 

Top Five From Last Weekend

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes – $54.8 M … $54.8 M 
2. The Smurfs – $20.7 M … $75.9 M 
3. Cowboys & Aliens – $15.7 M … $67.3 M 
4. The Change-Up – $13.5 M … $13.5 M 
5. Captain America: The First Avenger – $13 M … $143.2 M

Week #28 Wizard(s): Cinemus, Herpious – 3 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) – 87 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian – 61%

The Apes were victorious, but many of you changed it up with where you put The Change-Up. It finished below expectations. Welcome to Alex and PeeWee, our newest wizards!

WIZARD LEADERBOARD 

Cinemus the Predictor – 87 (82/140 – 58%)
Herpious Derpious – 86 (81/140 – 58%)
Kieran – 72 (72/135 – 53%)
Simonius Saysian – 69 (64/105 – 61%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm – 20 (15/35 – 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third – 9 (4/10) – 40%)
PeeWee the Purple – 7 (2/5 – 40%)
Julian – 7 (7/15 – 48%)
Max A – 5 (5/10 – 50%)Alex M – 1 (1/5 – 20%)


BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME

2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays – 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C – 97 pts in 34 weeks


New Contenders this Weekend

The Help (released Wed.)
Directed by Tate Taylor
Written by Tate Taylor, Kathryn Stockett (novel)
Starring: Emma Stone, Viola Davis, Bryce Dallas Howard
Genre: Drama/Comedy

Distributor: Disney
Release: 2,534 theaters 

Final Destination 5
Directed by Steven Quale
Written by Eric Heisserer, Jeffrey Reddick
Starring: Nicholas D’Agosto, Emma Bell, David Koechner, Tony Todd
Genre: Horror

Distributor: Warner Bros. (New Line)
Release: 3.155 theaters  

30 Minutes or Less
Directed by Ruben Fleischer
Written by Michael Diliberti, Matthew Sullivan
Starring: Jesse Eisenberg, Aziz Ansari, Danny McBride, Nick Swardson
Genre: Comedy/Action
Distributor: Sony/Columbia
Release: 2,888 theaters 
 

Glee: The 3D Concert Movie
Directed by Kevin Tancharoen
Starring: Lea Michele, Cory Monteith, Dianna Agron, Matthew Morrison
Genre: Musical/Concert
Distributor: Fox
Release: 2,040 theaters   

 

My Box Office Predictions

These apes won’t budge easily. I see Rise of the Planet of the Apes taking full advantage of no blockbuster-esque competition to win the box office as second straight week. A smaller drop than usually should be expected, with something close to 50 percent and a resulting $25-28 million. Although its predecessor made about that much in 2009, Final Destination 5 shouldn’t do as well. That was before people lashed back at 3D (and were also under the impression they were seeing the final destination, which they weren’t). I expect this to finish closer to Final Destination 3, although horror fans have been deprived all summer. Look for $20-25 million.

It gets tricky at these next couple spots. I’m going to give a very slight edge to 30 Minutes or Less. August comedies, for some reason, tend to do better than expected. After The Change-Up flopped last week, something that seems more progressive and for younger people should do better. Along with The Help, it should land between $15-20 million. The comedy/drama starring Emma Stone is on track for a nice weekend for a drama (they tend to stick around longer — openings are kind of a bonus), but it opened Wednesday. As the main film for the ladies, however and with the book’s reputation, it could defy that early release. A touch call for sure.

In fifth, I have to take note that no family films are here to tango with The Smurfs“Glee” isn’t exactly a family affair, but it comes close. The problem is at a 3-D premium, parents will be a bit reluctant to take their kids (and pay extra) to see something that’s on TV. The film gets a much smaller release than Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, so I expect maybe $12 million whereas those Smurfs should manage another $12-14 million.

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Final Destination 5
3. 30 Minutes or Less
4. The Help
5. The Smurfs

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