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The NEW Box Office Wizard (2.4.11)

Welcome to the NEW Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction competition and your chance every week to feel like a flippin’ genius – nay – wizard. Entering is and always has been simple. You read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be that weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.
 

This is Week 5. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “The Land Before Time XXVI,” to rank second in the box office that weekend and it comes in second), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat 0, it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

 

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

  • – Only submissions in the comment section count.
  • – Predictions must be in by Noon (the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up.
  • – Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources     publish Sunday afternoons.
  • – On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
  • – Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely)

 

Last Week’s Top Five 

1. The Rite – $15.5M (weekend)…$15.5M (gross)
2. No Strings Attached – $13.6M…$39.7M
3. The Mechanic – $11.5M…$11.5M
4. The Green Hornet – $11.5M…$78.8M 
5. The King’s Speech – $11.1M…$72.2M

Week #4 Wizard(s): Cinemus (Me!) and Herpious – 3 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) – 19 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s): None. Must Play 8 Weeks.  

None of us had The Mechanic figured for third place and those of you who had The King’s Speech beating it also took a hit. Then again, it was a crapshoot because the bottom three all finished within a million of each other.

WIZARD LEADERBOARD (Cumulative Pts)

Cinemus the Predictor – 19 (14/20 – 70%)
Herpious Derpious – 15 (10/20 – 50%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm – 14 (9/20 – 45%)
Simonius Saysian – 13 (8/15 – 53%)
Julian – 6 (6/10 – 60%)
Kieran – 6 (6/20 – 30%)
Max A – 5 (5/10 – 50%)


BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME

2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays – 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C – 97 pts in 34 weeks


New Contenders this Weekend

 

Sanctum
Directed by Alister Grierson
Written by John Garvin and Andrew Wight
Starring: Ioan Gruffud, Rhys Wakefield, Alice Parkinson, Richard Roxburgh
Genre: Horror

Distributor: New Line
Release: 2,985 theaters 

The Roommate
Directed by Christian E. Christiansen
Written by Sonny Mallhi
Starring: Minka Kelly, Leighton Meester, Cam Gigandet
Genre: Horror/Thriller
Distributor: CBS Films
Release: 2,703 theaters 

My Box Office Predictions

No matter what nation-wide television event occurs, some weekends are primed to be taken over by even the most unworthy of films. Considering our No. 1 movie in America last weekend made just $14.7 million, almost any film could do well enough to earn the title so adored by advertisers.

Looking back at Super Bowl weekends past, The Roommate will be that film. Appealing to a younger female audience that won’t be impacted by the Super Bowl, it’s poised to do surprisingly better than it deserves. In 2006, When a Stranger Calls set a then-Super Bowl weekend record with more than $20 million. That’s stupid good for a horror remake with low-end stars. With that type of film and the stars of Gossip Girls and Friday Night Lights, there’s enough to make at least more than the rest of the pack. Expect anywhere from $12-20 million for this pscyho roomie thriller.

The new 3-D disaster horror film from James Cameron is a bit harder to decode. Can Cameron’s name trick people into seeing this film? There is virtually no star power and its core audience will surely be parked in front of a TV come Sunday. I think it’ll be close, but $10 million will be enough to put Sanctum at No. 2.

In third place I have The King’s Speech leapfrogging all the other top five finishers from last weekend. No Strings Attached could hold up and beat it, but with all the Oscar buzz pouring on this film, it won’t make less than $8 million, which is right where I have the Natalie Portman/Ashton Kutcher rom-com.

Last weekend’s newcomers will duke it out for fifth place. Horror films tend to plummet, so I have $6-7 million for The Rite, accounting for a 60 percent drop almost. Jason Statham’s films fold in half in their second weeks, so that puts The Mechanic just below The Rite. Anthony Hopkins also gives reason to believe leaving the top five isn’t completely in the cards for the horror film.

1. The Roommate
2. Sanctum
3. The King’s Speech
4. No Strings Attached
5. The Rite

 

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