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Box Office Wizard (10.14.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s Movie Box Office Prediction Contest. Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

This is Week 38. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comments Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comments section qualify. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).


Top Five From Last Weekend

1. Real Steel - $27.3 M ... $27.3 M 
2. The Ides of March - $10.4 M ... $10.4 M 
3. Dolphin Tale - $9.1 M ... $49 M 
4. Moneyball - $7.4 M ... $49.2 M 
5. 50/50 - $5.6 M ... $17.4 M

Week #37 Wizard(s): Everyone - 4 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor - 103 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian - 55%

Much better week. 50/50 sneaking in at five caught everyone by surprise, but hardly a wrench.


Cinemus the Predictor - 103 (98/185 - 53%)
Herpious Derpious - 100 (95/185 - 51%)
Kieran - 84 (84/180 - 46%)
Simonius Saysian - 80 (75/135 - 55%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
PeeWee the Purple - 9 (4/20 - 20%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)
Alex M - 3 (3/15 - 20%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Directed by Craig Brewer
Written by Dean Pitchford and Craig Brewer
Starring: Kenny Wormald, Julianne Hough, Dennis Quaid, Andie MacDowell
Genre: Musical/Drama
Distributor: Paramount
Release: 3,549 theaters 

The Thing
Directed by Matthijs van Heijningen Jr.
Written by Eric Heisserer, John W. Campbell Jr. (short story)
Starring: Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Joel Edgerton, Eric Christian Olsen, Adewala Akinnuoye-Agbaje
Genre: Horror/Sci Fi

Distributor: Universal
Release: 2,997 theaters 

The Big Year
Directed by David Frankel
Written by Howard Franklin, Mark Obmascik (book)
Starring: Owen Wilson, Jack Black, Steve Martin, Rashida Jones
Genre: Comedy

Distributor: Fox
Release: 2,150 theaters 

Box Office Predictions

Paramount should be kicking off its Sunday shoes this weekend when the box-office totals roll in. Expect Footloose to earn the top spot, as buzz has been very good for this film in terms of reviews and public interest. $15-20 million can be expected.

Real Steel seems likely to beat the other newcomers to still stay high up in the top five; the film has no competitors for its demographic, so $13-15 million is in order.

Horror has performed terribly at the box office this season so far, and with Paranormal Activity 3 on the horizon, The Thing will get overlooked. Still, it might be the most credible horror film to be released this half of 2011. I think it can crack $10 million, but if so, not by much.

The Ides of March is my pick in the free-for-all that is the under-$10-million group this week. With good reviews and appeal for adults, it should edge out The Big Year, which has just enough star power for me to think it can eek out $6 million or so. “Ides” should make closer to $7 million.

1. Footloose
2. Real Steel
3. The Thing
4. The Ides of March
5. The Big Year



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