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Box Office Wizard (10.28.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s Movie Box Office Prediction Contest. Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

This is Week 40. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comments Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comments section qualify. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).


Top Five From Last Weekend

1. Paranormal Activity 3 - $52.5 M ... $52.5 
2. Real Steel - $10.8 M ... $66.7 M 
3. Footloose - $10.3 M ... $30.5 
4. The Three Musketeers - $8.6 M ... $8.6 
5. The Ides of March - $4.8 M ... $29.1 M

Week #39 Wizard(s): Cinemus - 2 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor - 107 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian - 54%

Damn you, Musketeers. I still managed to up the rest of you though, who actually thought "Johnny English" would end up in the top five.


Cinemus the Predictor - 107 (102/195 - 52%)
Herpious Derpious - 103 (98/195 - 50%)
Kieran - 86 (86/185 - 46%)
Simonius Saysian - 83 (78/145 - 54%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
PeeWee the Purple - 9 (4/20 - 20%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)
Alex M - 3 (3/15 - 20%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Puss in Boots
Directed by Chris Miller
Written by Brian Lynch, David H. Steinberg, Tom Wheeler, Jon Zack
Starring: (voices) Antonio Banderas, Selma Hayek, Zach Galifianakis
Genre: Family/Animation
Distributor: Paramount/DreamWorks
Release: 3,800 theaters 

In Time
Written and Directed by Andrew Niccol
Starring: Justin Timberlake, Amanda Seyfried, Cillian Murphy, Alex Pettyfer
Genre: Sci Fi/Action/Thriller

Distributor: Fox
Release: 3,000 theaters 

The Rum Diary
Directed by Bruce Robinson
Written by Bruce Robinson, Hunter S. Thompson (novel)
Starring: Johnny Depp, Amber Heard, Aaron Eckhart, Richard Jenkins
Genre: Comedy/Drama
Distributor: FilmDistrict
Release: 2,100 theaters 

Directed by Rolland Emmerich
Written by John Orloff
Starring: Rhys Ifans, Vanessa Redgrave, David Thewlis, Rafe Spall
Genre: Period Thriller

Distributor: Sony
Release: 200 theaters 

Box Office Predictions

If you thought fans of horror were waiting to pounce last weekend, try families. Although a week early than expected, Puss in Boots will still draw a big crowd, as Halloween won’t occupy kids until Monday. DreamWorks is definitely hurting its opening, but probably not by much and the staying power next weekend will be strong. November’s first animated film usually scores $40 million, so that’s reasonable.

Paranormal Activity 3 won’t see as tremendous of a drop as it might otherwise without a new horror film coming out (on Halloween weekend… weird), especially with great buzz and a record-breaking opening. $20 million seems fair.

I’m not super optimistic about In Time, but with Timberlake and an appealing concept, I don’t see it flopping as hard as above-13-targeted action films. It should do at least enough to finish ahead of everything else, which only needs to be $10-12 million.

It gets a bit complicated from here on out, because so many films have been underperforming, meaning the few good ones hold up better. I don’t feel optimistic for the newcomers, so I say Footloose takes fourth. It has inched closer to Real Steel over time and should pull ahead by a nose. My gut says to avoid The Rum Diary, but with Johnny Depp and such it could manage to factor in the top five.

1. Puss in Boots
2. Paranormal Activity 3
3. In Time
4. Footloose
5. Real Steel



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