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Box Office Wizard (2.18.11)

Welcome to the NEW Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction competition and your chance every week to feel like a flippin’ genius – nay – wizard. Entering is and always has been simple. You read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be that weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.
 

This is Week 6. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “The Land Before Time XXVI,” to rank second in the box office that weekend and it comes in second), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat 0, it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

  • - Only submissions in the comment section count.
  • - Predictions must be in by Noon (the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up.
  • - Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources     publish Sunday afternoons.
  • - On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
  • - Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely)

 

Last Week's Top Five 

1.  Just Go With It - $31.0M (weekend)…$31.0M (gross)
2.  Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - $30.2M…$30.2M
3.  Gnomeo and Juliet - $25.5M…$25.5M
4.  The Eagle - $8.5M…$8.5M 

5.  The Roommate - $8.4M…$26.0M

Week #5 Wizard(s): Cinemus, Herpious - 5 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 24 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s): None. Must Play 8 Weeks.  

Perfection is a sweet, sweet thing. Although I admit The Roommate outshined my projections by a lot. Only Jamven went with the Biebs. Poor choice, Jamven.

WIZARD LEADERBOARD (Cumulative Pts)

Cinemus the Predictor - 24 (19/25 - 76%)
Herpious Derpious - 20 (15/25 - 60%)
Simonius Saysian - 17 (12/20 - 60%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 14 (9/25 - 36%)
Julian - 6 (6/10 - 60%)
Kieran - 10 (10/25 - 40%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME

2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks


New Contenders this Weekend

I Am Number Four
Directed by D.J. Caruso
Written by Alfred Gough, Miles Millar and Marti Noxon, Jobie Hughes and James Frey (novel)
Starring: Alex Pettyfer, Timothy Olyphant, Dianna Agron, Teresa Palmer
Genre: Action
Distributor: Buena Vista
Release: 3,154 theaters 


Unknown
Directed by Jaume Collet-Serra
Written by Oliver Butcher and Stephen Cornwell, Didier Van Cauwelaert (novel)
Starring: Liam Neeson, Diane Kruger, January Jones, Frank Langella
Genre: Action/Thriller
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release: 3,043 theaters 



Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son

Directed by John Whitesell
Written by Matthew Fogel and Don Rhymer, Darrel Quaryles (characters)
Starring: Martin Lawrence, Brandon T. Jackson, Faizon Love
Genre: Comedy

Distributor: Fox
Release: 2,821 theaters 

My Box Office Predictions

President's Day weekend made a killing last year for Valentine's Day, The Wolfman and Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief. Although that's not exactly the mix we have here this year, I am adding a bit to the totals for what would otherwise be my modest predictions.

I Am Number Four does not have the built-in following of "Percy Jackson," but it has been marketed in two ways: to gobble up the Twilight and other teenage girls audience courtesy images of star Dianna Agron (Glee), but also with an emphasis on the action for teenage guys. No film has pandered to this audience in awhile, so I think the teens will give the film a boost close to, but not eclipsing $30 million.

Second place will be tighter. We saw Liam Neeson and Taken bring in $25 million on Super Bowl weekend a little while back, and in its heyday, Martin Lawrence's fat-suit action comedy opened with $27 million. I'm more confident in a repeat performance from Neeson as that was only a couple years ago, so I'm choosing Unknown for second with $25 million and Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son for third with $20-25 million.

As for the returners from last week, you can count out Justin Bieber. Of all the films set to drop, that would be the one, as most of his loyal crowd of followers have been out to theaters already. As for Just Go With It and Gnomeo & Juliet, there are no new adult films and no new kid flicks, so I suspect, a minimal drop for both. I'm more confident in Gnomeo & Juliet over Just Go With It, especially with the four-day weekend, but both will finish with between $15-18 million.

1. I Am Number Four
2. Unknown
3. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son
4. Gnomeo & Juliet
5. Just Go With It

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