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Box Office Wizard (4.15.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction competition that you ignore every week because you don't hath the stones of a real wizard. Entering is and always has been simple, so why not get your beard on and give it a try? Just read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.

This is Week 14. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “The Fastest and Furiousest” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat 0, it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comment section count. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely)

Last Week's Top Five 

1.  Hop - $21.2M (weekend)…$67.7M (gross)
2.  Hanna - $12.3M…$12.3M
3.  Arthur - $12.2M…$13.4M
4.  Soul Surfer - $10.6M…$10.6M 
5.  Insidious - $9.3M…$26.7M

Week #13 Wizard(s): Herpious - 2 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 41 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 58%

Rough weekend thanks to Your Highness flopping and especially when the actuals came in and Arthur was only third place. Props to Herpious Derpious for bravely chosing Soul Surfer for the fourth spot to earn the extra point.


Cinemus the Predictor - 41 (36/65 - 55%)
Herpious Derpious - 38 (33/65 - 50%)
Simonius Saysian - 33 (28/55 - 51%)
Kieran - 27 (27/65 - 41%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 15 (10/30 - 30%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)
Dustin C - 0 (0/5) - 0%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Directed by Carlos Saldanha
Written by Don Rhymer
Starring: (voices) Jesse Eisenberg, Anne Hathaway, George Lopez, Jamie Foxx
Genre: Animation
Distributor: Fox
Release: 3,826 theaters 


Scream 4 Directed by Wes Craven
Written by Kevin Williamson
Starring: Neve Campbell, Hayden Panettiere, Emma Roberts, David Arquette
Genre: Horror
Distributor: Weinstein Co. / Dimension Films
Release: 3,305 theaters 

The Conspirator
Directed by Robert Redford
Written by James Solomon, Gregory Bernstein
Starring: Robin Wright, James McAvoy, Alexis Bledel, Tom Wilkinson
Genre: Period Thriller
Distributor: Roadside Attractions
Release: 707 theaters 


My Box Office Predictions

Will family films and animation continue their domination of 2011, or will an old horror favorite prove a winner?

The normal inclination would be never to bet on any horror flick over an animated film, but Scream 4 will not be your average horror flick. The third film in the series opened with $35 million and that was ten years ago. Ticket prices have changed a lot since then. Regardless of inflation, however, the “Scream” franchise has been one of horror’s most lucrative ever and the “reunion” factor should drive all horror fans out to theaters. If A Nightmare on Elm Street could make $32 million last April with no familiar faces, expect unusual things for Scream 4, somewhere between $40-45 but possibly more.

Rio will still do very well, but it’s facing competition from Hop, which should hold up well with Easter approaching soon. The bunny and chicks flick made $37 million its first weekend and I think Rio can match that easily given strong reviews and typical animated tropes. Hop will be third easily with about $12 million for its third week.

As for the other holdovers, I’m going to give the well-reviewed Hanna fourth with $9 million or so and then I will choose Soul Surfer to eek past Arthur with about $7 million as inspirational family dramas tend to hold up well.

1. Scream 4
2. Rio
3. Hop
4. Hanna
5. Soul Surfer


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