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Box Office Wizard (4.30.10)

One of the goals we have at Player Affinity is to create an open dialog with our readers. I don't know how many of you there are yet, probably not much, but it's never too early to start asking for your thoughts and opinions.

One way we thought to do this was through a weekly competition. We want you to get out your box office crystal balls and tells us which five movies will place in the top five of each weekend's U.S. domestic box office chart. Simple enough, right? I will make my own predictions here and explain them to you each week to give you some sort of reference point. It's then your job to enter a comment with your top five.

The first week you predict is the first week you enter the Box Office Wizard competition. For every correct prediction each week, you earn a point. Today, everyone is equal. Next week, not so much. This is because points are cumulative. The game keeps going on and on forever and ever. Well, scratch that, my guess is we would reset everyone back to zero once a year. Each week there will be at least two winners: a weekend wizard for the users who guessed the most correct and a box office wizard for the user with the most points to date. The goal is to be Box Office Wizard for as long as you can. I'll pick an end date for the year at some point and then whoever has the most becomes the year's box office wizard. Maybe by the team that happens, Player Affinity will be so wildly popular that we'll have some cool free stuff to give the Box Office Wizard of the Year. Regardless, it's worth giving a try. What do you have to lose?

As for me, I'm going to stake my reputation out here for all to see week in and week out. Occasionally other PAM writers might take the reigns, but for now it's just me. Other writers are allowed to compete, however, so that majority of you at this point that are just PAM staff members, feel free to give it a crack. Remember, only submissions in the comment section count and they must be made by midnight tonight.

If it helps, here are last week's top five finishers and this week's new contenders followed by my predictions.

Last Week's Top Five
  1. How to Train Your Dragon - $15.3 M (weekend) ... $178.3 M (gross)
  2. The Back-up Plan - $12.2 M … $12.2 M
  3. Date Night - $10.4 M … $63.3 M
  4. The Losers - $9.4 M … $9.4 M
  5. Kick-Ass - $9.3 M … $34.7 M
New Contenders this Weekend

A Nightmare on Elm Street
Directed by Samuel Bayer
Written by Wesley Strick, Eric Heisserer
Starring: Jackie Earl Haley, Rooney Mara, Kyle Gallner
Genre: Horror
Distributor: Warner Bros. (New Line) 
Release: 3,332 theaters 


Furry Vengeance

Directed by Roger Kumble
Written by Michael Carnes, Josh Gilbert
Starring: Brendan Fraser, Brooke Shields, Ken Jeong
Genre: Family Comedy
Distributor: Summit Entertainment
Release: 2,997 theaters  



My Top Five Predictions

Last weekend was a terrible one for predictions, but with every film doing so poorly, that makes this one a piece of cake as far as the top spot goes. A Nightmare on Elm Street will win the box office by a long shot. I’m estimating $25-30 million, but the two-month horror drought could push it above $30 M.

How to Train Your Dragon should continue its impressive repeat performances by only sliding from $15 million to just above $10 M, which will easily earn it second place. Due to that number being extremely low for second place, Furry Vengeance should by default get at least third just ahead of Date Night, which enters week number four. I think no more than a million or so will separate the films with “Vengeance” earning around $8 M and “Date Night” between $6-7 M. Expect The Back-up Plan to just follow that up with around $6 million.

  1. A Nightmare on Elm Street
  2. How to Train Your Dragon
  3. Furry Vengeance
  4. Date Night
  5. The Back-up Plan
 

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