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Box Office Wizard (4.8.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction competition that you ignore every week because you don't hath the stones of a real wizard. Entering is and always has been simple, so why not get your beard on and give it a try? Just read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.

This is Week 13. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “The Fastest and Furiousest” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat 0, it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comment section count. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 
-On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely)


Last Week's Top Five 

1.  Hop - $38.1M (weekend)…$38.1M (gross)
2.  Source Code - $15.0M…$15.0M
3.  Insidious - $13.4M…$13.4M

4.  Diary of  a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules - $10.2M…$38.3M 
5.  Limitless - $9.4M…$55.6M


Week #12 Wizard(s):  Cinemus, Simonious, Kieran and Herpious - 5 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 40 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 58%

Everyone this week stuck with me and it paid off. Nice work fellow wizards.

WIZARD LEADERBOARD (Cumulative Pts)

Cinemus the Predictor - 40 (35/60 - 58%)
Herpious Derpious - 36 (31/60 - 51%)
Simonius Saysian - 33 (28/55 - 51%)
Kieran - 26 (26/60 - 43%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 15 (10/30 - 30%)
Julian - 6 (6/10 - 60%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)
Dustin C - 0 (0/5) - 0%)


BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME

2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks


New Contenders this Weekend

Arthur
Directed by Jason Winer
Written by  Peter Baynham, Steve Gordon (story)
Starring: Russell Brand, Helen Mirren, Luis Guzmán, Jennifer Garner
Genre: Comedy
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release: 3,276 theaters 

 



Your Highness
Directed by David Gordon Green
Written by Danny McBride, Ben Best
Starring: Danny McBride, James Franco, Natalie Portman, Zooey Deschanel
Genre: Comedy/Fantasy
Distributor: Universal
Release: 2,769 theaters 






Hanna
Directed by Joe Wright
Written by Seth Lochhead, David Farr
Starring: Saoirse Ronan, Cate Blanchett, Eric Bana, Olivia Williams
Genre: Action/Thriller
Distributor: Focus Features
Release: 2,535 theaters 






Soul Surfer
Directed by Sean McNamara
Written by Sean McNamara, Deborah Schwartz, Douglas Schwartz and 7 others
Starring: AnnaSophia Robb, Dennis Quaid, Helen Hunt, Carrie Underwood
Genre: Sports Drama
Distributor: TriStar
Release: 2,214



 

My Box Office Predictions

With four newcomers, it would seem that 2011 would see yet another box-office champ this week, but I’m not buying it. I think Hop will be the first repeat No. 1 film again as it remains the only family film outside of Rango with any pull until Riocomes out next week. Knowing how well family films have held up at the box office so far this year, the Easter flick should earn another $20-22 million and hold off any competition.

Of all the new releases, Arthur has the best chance. With the widest release and Russell Brand’s decent track record ($17 million for Get Him to the Greek), a PG-13 film from him with the help of Jennifer Garner should earn the film $17-20 million. I would say higher, but Brand’s usual MTV crowd is not the targeted group here and he’s not up to his usual tricks in this role.

Here is where this weekend becomes a crapshoot. I’m not high on Your Highness from a box-office standpoint, but I think McBride and Franco and Portman can get this film to $12-15 million. Closer to ten would not surprise me either given the “stoner male” demographic that the film aims for. I see it having to fend off Hanna which I’m targeting for $10-15 million. The concept of “Hanna” has a wider appeal but the names aren’t as big as for "Highness."

In fifth, I suspect Soul Surfer can beat out what I imagine to be strong returns for Source Code and possibly even Insidious. I think the sports drama could earn $10 million whereas Source Code should earn $9-10 million.

1. Hop
2. Arthur
3. Your Highness
4. Hanna
5. Soul Surfer

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