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Box Office Wizard (5.13.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction competition that you ignore every week because you don't hath the stones of a real wizard. Entering is and always has been simple, so why not get your beard on and give it a try? Just read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details, and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.

This is Week 17. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “The Fastest and Furiousest” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat zero – it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comment section count. 
-Predictions must be in by noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).

Last Weekend's Top Five 

1. Thor - $65.7 M (weekend) ... $65.7 M (gross)
2. Fast Five - $32.4 M ... $139.7 M
3. Jumping the Broom - $15.2 M ... $15.2 M
4. Something Borrowed - $13.9 M … $13.9 M
5. Rio - $8.5 M ... $115.2 M

Week #16 Wizard(s): Simonious - 3 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 48 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 53%

Simonious emerged on top by having a bit more faith than the rest of us in Jumping the Broom. However, no one had it has high as third place, which is where it finished.


Cinemus the Predictor - 48 (43/80 - 53%)
Herpious Derpious - 45 (40/80 - 50%)
Simonius Saysian - 39 (34/65 - 52%)
Kieran - 35 (35/80 - 43%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Directed by Paul Feig
Written by Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo
Starring: Kristen Wiig, Maya Rudolph, Rose Byrne, Melissa McCarthy
Genre: Comedy
Distributor: Universal
Release: 2,917 theaters 


Directed by Scott Charles Stewart
Written by Cory Goodman, Min-Woo Hyung (graphic novel)
Starring: Paul Bettany, Karl Urban, Maggie Q, Cam Gigandet
Genre: Horror/Action/Sci Fi
Distributor: Sony/Screen Gems
Release: 2,864 theaters 


My Box Office Predictions

This is a rare summer weekend where nothing new looks to jump out and make bank, which means that even after underperforming last weekend, Thor should still be number one and with $30 million or so.

Beyond that it gets tricky. I'm projecting both newcomers and Fast Five to finish in the $15-20 million range. So, how to set them apart? My thought is Bridesmaids will take second. The positive buzz, the boost that it will get from men buying tickets and such should put it very close to $20 million. No romantic comedy has really taken off yet, but Bridesmaids could get it done with all the positive word of mouth.

Next I'm going to pick Priest. If Scott Stewart's last film, Legion, with an almost identical plot and identical lead star could make $17 million in January and be awful, Priest should find similar success. I'm thinking $18 million. The May spot should help its numbers, but that should be countered by the fatigue for unoriginal storytelling and such. Fast Five will then slip right below it with $15 million, but there's a chance more people would rather check that out its third weekend than Priest and the two could flip-flop.

In fifth, of all the returners I like Something Borrowed. It failed me last week, but like most comedies geared toward African-Americans, Jumping the Broom should fall much further and lose out by a hair to the slightly more feminine alternative to Bridesmaids.

1. Thor
2. Bridesmaids
3. Priest
4. Fast Five
5. Something Borrowed


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