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Box Office Wizard (5.20.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction contest that gives the average Tom, Dick or Merlin the chance to prove his or her worth. Entering is and always has been simple, so why not get your beard on and give it a try? Just read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details, and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.

This is Week 18. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat zero – it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comment section count. 
-Predictions must be in by noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).

Last Weekend's Top Five 

1. Thor - $34.7 M (weekend) ... $119.4 M (gross)
2. Bridesmaids - $26.2 M ... $26.2 M
3. Fast Five - $20.4 M ... $169.7 M
4. Priest - $14.9 M … $14.9 M
5. Rio - $8.2 M ... $125.2 M

Week #17 Wizard(s): Simonious and Kieran - 4 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 50 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian - 54%

Simonious and Kieran correctly guessed that Priest would underperform, leading to a perfect Top 4. Rio outdid us all by dropping $0.3 million from last weekend.


Cinemus the Predictor - 50 (45/85 - 52%)
Herpious Derpious - 47 (42/85 - 49%)
Simonius Saysian - 43 (38/70 - 54%)
Kieran - 39 (39/85 - 46%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Directed by Rob Marshall
Written by Ted Elliot, Terry Rossio
Starring: Johnny Depp, Penelope Cruz, Geoffrey Rush, Ian McShane
Genre: Action/Adventure
Distributor: Disney
Release: 4,155 theaters 



My Box Office Predictions

Considering last weekend was a downer weekend in terms of exciting new releases, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides could win the box office in its sleep. Even if it makes significantly less than the last installment, "At World's End," ($114.7 million)  it would still come in first. I'm going to say $100 million. I don't think it will do as well as it did before the hiatus, but it has no competition and a huge fan base. I'm not, however, confident enough to say it will handily beat Fast Five's $86 million, just because we've seen examples of films coming off hiatus Scream 4 that tanked. At the same time, since Thor performed just okay, the summer movie season has yet to completely explode and it seems right that "Pirates" break the $100-million barrier.

I'm going to go bold for second place, however. Bridesmaids will beat out Thor despite it being the other way around this past weekend. Bridesmaids will remain a great date option with such positive buzz, whereas Thor will continue to drop significantly with "Pirates" in the fold. It will be neck-and-neck however. Both should finish with $18-20 million.

Fast Five looks good in fourth place with about $10-12 million this weekend and I like Rio (should've considered that last week) to stay in fifth again with no family film competition. It should just beat out Priest, which will drop far even with a poor performance last weekend.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
2. Bridesmaids
3. Thor
4. Fast Five
5. Rio


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