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Box Office Wizard (5.6.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction competition that you ignore every week because you don't hath the stones of a real wizard. Entering is and always has been simple, so why not get your beard on and give it a try? Just read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details, and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.

This is Week 16. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “The Fastest and Furiousest” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat zero it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comment section count. 
-Predictions must be in by noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely)

Weekend Before Last Weekend's Top Five 

1. Rio - $26.3 M (weekend) ... $80.8 M (gross)
2. Madea's Big Happy Family - $25 M ... $25 M
3. Water for Elephants - $16.8 M ... $16.8 M
4. Hop - $12.1 M … $100.2 M
5. Scream 4 - $18.7 M ... $31 M

Week #15 Wizard(s): Cinemus and Herpious - 2 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 46 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 55%

Apologies for missing last week ... it was a crazy week in the (private) wizarding world. Regardless, two weeks ago half of you dropped out. Come back! Anyway, Rio barely beat Tyler Perry a couple weekends ago, which hurt everyone.


Cinemus the Predictor - 46 (41/75 - 55%)
Herpious Derpious - 43 (38/75 - 51%)
Simonius Saysian - 36 (31/60 - 51%)
Kieran - 33 (33/75 - 44%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Directed by Kenneth Branagh
Written by Ashley Miller, Zack Stentz, Don Payne (screenplay), J. Michael Straczynski and Mark Protosevich (story), Stan Lee, Larry Lieber and Jack Kirby (comic)
Starring: Chris Hemsworth, Natalie Portman, Anthony Hopkins, Tom Hiddleston
Genre: Action/Adventure
Distributor: Paramount
Release: 3,955 theaters 


Something Borrowed 
Directed by Luke Greenfield
Written by Jenny Snyder, Emily Giffin (novel)
Starring: Ginnifer Goodwin, Kate Hudson, Colin Egglesfield, John Krasinski
Genre: Romance/Comedy
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release: 2,904 theaters 

Jumping the Broom
Directed by Salim Akil
Written by Elizabeth Hunter and Arlene Gibbs
Starring: Paula Patton, Laz Alonso, Angela Bassett, Loretta Devine
Genre: Romance/Comedy
Distributor: TriStar
Release: 2,035 theaters 


My Box Office Predictions

Summer roared off to a big, fast and loud start in some people's minds last weekend, but the muffler should go on this weekend in favor of cinema's newest superhero. Thor had a big overseas opening and positive reviews should help it do well. The $90 million-plus that Iron Man first debuted with seems unlikely given the Norse mythology and no Robert Downey Jr. figure, so $75-90 seems more realistic for Thor.

Fast Five will come up well short of breaking the ribbon, but should still do well. Fast & Furious plummeted after scoring more than $70 million two years ago and with Thor stealing away part of its audience, a similar drop should be expected. $30-35 million makes sense for the car chase/heist flick.

The summer's first romantic comedy should take third place. We saw Water for Elephants do well a few weeks ago for a romance based on a novel, so $15 million is my guess for Something Borrowed.

In fourth I like Rio to hold up well without any family film competition. $10 million seems right. Jumping the Broom should come in fifth despite facing competition from Madea's Big Happy Family.

1. Thor
2. Fast Five
3. Something Borrowed
4. Rio
5. Jumping the Broom


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