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Box Office Wizard (6.10.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction contest that gives the average Tom, Dick or Merlin the chance to prove his or her worth. Entering is and always has been simple, so why not get your beard on and give it a try? Just read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details, and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.

This is Week 21. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat zero – it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comment section count. 
-Predictions must be in by noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up. Friday by Noon on early start Holiday weekends 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).

Last Weekend's Top Five 

1. X-Men: First Class - $55.1 M ... $55.1 M 
2. The Hangover Part II - $31.3 M ... $185.8 M 
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $23.8 M ... $100 M 
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $17.9 M ... $190.2 M 
5. Bridesmaids - $12 M ... $107.1 M

Week #20 Wizard(s): Everywiz - 5 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 62 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian - 60%

An easy week for predictions and fortunately we were all in agreement.


Cinemus the Predictor - 62 (57/100 - 57%)
Herpious Derpious - 59 (54/100 - 54%)
Simonius Saysian - 56 (51/85 - 60%)
Kieran - 49 (49/100 - 49%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Super 8
Written and Directed by J.J. Abrams
Starring: Elle Fanning, Kyle Chandler, Noah Emmerich, Amanda Michalka
Genre: Sci Fi/Thriller
Distributor: Paramount
Release: 3,379 theaters 

Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer
Directed by John Schultz
Written by Kathy Waugh and Megan McDonald
Starring: Jordana Beatty, Heather Graham, Parris Mosteller
Genre: Family/Comedy

Distributor: Relativity
Release: 2,524 theaters 

Midnight in Paris
Written and Directed by Woody Allen
Starring: Owen Wilson, Rachel McAdams, Michael Sheen, Marion Cotillard
Genre: Romance/Comedy
Distributor: Sony Classics
Release: 944 theaters (expansion)


My Box Office Predictions

Although some prognosticators are nervous about Super 8, I take one look at Cloverfield's $40 million in January a few years back and I have confidence it will be the number one film, even with a strong second week from a well-received X-Men: First Class. I think "First Class" will finish with $25-30 million and I can't see Super 8 with any less than $30 million.

I'm getting a bit more daring in my predictions in these next couple places. I've been waiting patiently for Kung Fu Panda 2 to make its move on The Hangover Part II and I think it happens this weekend. Animated films hold up much better than poorly reviewed comedies, even if that poorly reviewed comedy is the highest-grossing comedy opener of all time. I have them both at around $15 million so the edge goes to "Panda." 

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides will enjoy a final hurrah in the top five this weekend. 

1. Super 8
2. X-Men: First Class
3. Kung Fu Panda 2
4. The Hangover Part II
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides


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