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Box Office Wizard (6.17.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction contest. It gives the average Tom, Dick or Merlin the chance to prove his or her worth. Entering is simple, so why not get give it a try? Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.


This is Week 22. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comment Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comment section count. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).

Last Weekend's Top Five 

1. Super 8 - $35.4 M ... $35.4 M 
2. X-Men: First Class - $24.1 M ... $98 M 
3. The Hangover Part II - $17.6 M ... $215.7 M 
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $16.5 M ... $126.8 M 
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $10.9 M ... $208.8 M

Week #21 Wizard(s): Herpious - 5 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 65 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian - 60%

Herpious foresaw that The Hangover Part II would not yield ground to the mighty panda Po and managed a second straight sweep, putting him within striking distance of first place on the leaderboard


Cinemus the Predictor - 65 (60/105 - 57%)
Herpious Derpious - 64 (59/105 - 56%)
Simonius Saysian - 56 (51/85 - 60%)
Kieran - 52 (52/105 - 49%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Green Lantern
Directed by Martin Campbell
Written by Greg Berlanti, Michael Green, Marc Guggenheim and Michael Goldenberg
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Blake Lively, Peter Sarsgaard, Mark Strong
Genre: Sci Fi/Action
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release: 3,816 theaters 

Mr. Popper's Penguins
Directed by Mark Waters
Written by Sean Anders, John Morris and Jared Stern, Richard and Florence Atwater (book)
Starring: Jim Carrey, Carla Gugino, Ophelia Lovibond
Genre: Family/Comedy
Distributor: Fox
Release: 3,338 theaters 

The Art of Getting By
Written and Directed by Gavin Wiesen
Starring: Freddie Highmore, Emma Roberts, Michael Angarano
Genre: Romance/Drama
Distributor: Fox Searchlight
Release: 610 theaters


My Box Office Predictions

While it's an easy prediction for 1st place this week, Green Lantern could rank the lowest of all superhero films released so far this year in terms of opening weekend numbers. Thor managed to make just $65 million in the coveted first weekend of May and the reliable "X-Men" franchise made less than that two weeks ago. Factor in superhero fatigue and I'm guessing $40-50 million seems about right. Poor reviews could push away even more people who are confused by all the green, but interested in Ryan Reynolds and co-star Blake Lively.

A battle for 2nd place could be happening this weekend between last week's top earner and our second new release. Jim Carrey is nowhere near as bankable as he once was and with positive buzz for Super 8, I'm not sure the $15-20 million I'm estimating will be enough for Mr. Popper's Penguins to rank higher than 3rd place. Last year we saw the animal film Marmaduke absolutely tank, but I give Carrey's mug more credit. With Cars 2 out next week, families might save their cash. Super 8 made a modest total last week, so it doesn't seem likely to drop as far in its second week. I'm guessing $20 million.

Good reviews should keep X-Men: First Class a hot ticket at 4th place. Despite competition from Green Lantern, it should still bring in $12-15 million. Lastly, Kung Fu Panda 2, predicted at 5th place, will bump The Hangover Part II out of the top five this weekend.

1. Green Lantern
2. Super 8
3. Mr. Popper's Penguins
4. X-Men: First Class
5. Kung Fu Panda 2


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