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Box Office Wizard (6.18.10)

Merlin? Gandalf? The Wizard of Oz? You could be like THEM. Don’t be shy and enter Player Affinity’s weekly box office prediction competition. All you have to do is read this post and comment according to my mind-numbingly simple instructions and you could be on your way to Dumbledorian levels of accomplishment.

All we want you to do is get out your box office crystal balls and tells us which five movies will place in the top five of each weekend’s U.S. domestic box office chart. Simple enough, right? I will make my own predictions here and explain them to you each week to give you some sort of reference point. It’s then your job to enter a comment with your top five. 

This is Week #7. The first week you predict is the first week you enter the Box Office Wizard competition. For every correct prediction each week, you earn a point. Points are cumulative. The game keeps going on and on forever and ever except we will reset everyone back to zero — let’s say — once a year. Each week there will be at least two winners: a weekend wizard for the users who guessed the most correct and a box office wizard for the user with the most points to date. The goal is to be Box Office Wizard for as long as you can. I’ll pick an end date for the year at some point and then whoever has the most becomes the year’s box office wizard. Maybe by the team that happens, Player Affinity will be so wildly popular that we’ll have some cool free stuff to give the Box Office Wizard of the Year. Regardless, it’s worth giving a try. What do you have to lose?

Week #6 Wizard(s): Steven C, TheGamerGeek, Dementious, Dustin C – 2 pts each
Current Box Office Wizard: Steven C – 20 Pts 

No one could get more than two right last week, but kudos to Dustin for being the only one to pick The Karate Kid for first place. A gentle reminder here to get your totals in before 12 pm Saturday afternoon (based on Player Affinity time stamps on the comments).

ALL-TIME TOTALS
Steven C – 20
SimonSays – 16
Olly H – 14
TheGamerGeek – 11
Dementious – 5 
Dustin C – 5
Matthew D – 3
Lydia – 2

Remember, only submissions in the comment section count and they must be made by 12:00 PM SATURDAY. Check our weekly recap posting late afternoon every Monday for the box office figures of the weekend. Remember, we count the WEEKEND ACTUALS, not the ESTIMATES announced on Sundays. On 4-day weekends, only the 3-day total matters.

Here are last week’s top five finishers and this week’s new contenders followed by my predictions.

Last Week’s Top Five

        1. The Karate Kid – $55.7M (weekend) … $55.7 M (gross)
        2. The A-Team – $25.7M … $25.7 M
        3. Shrek Forever After – $15.7M … $210.0 M
        4. Get Him to the Greek – $9.9 M … $36.4 M
        5. Killers – $8.0 M … $30.3 M

        New Contenders this Weekend

        Toy Story 3
        Directed by Lee Unkrich
        Written by Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich
        Starring: (voices) Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, Don Rickles, Joan Cusack, etc …
        Genre: Animation/Family
        Distributor: Disney – Pixar Animation
        Release: 4,028 theaters 
         

        Jonah Hex
        Directed by Jimmy Heyward
        Written by Mark Neveldine, Brian Taylor, William Farmer, John Albano and Tony Dezuniga (comic)
        Starring: Josh Brolin, John Malkovich, Megan Fox
        Genre: Action/Western
        Distributor: Warner Bros.
        Release: 2,825 theaters 


        My Top Five Predictions

        Just how much will the toys go for? That’s the question this week. My thought says better than the most recent “Shrek,” so more than $70 million, which is easy because the last two non-franchise Pixar films made at least $65 million. The only thing tempering my predictions is that this weekend historically doesn’t usually bring in huge totals. However, I’m going to say $100 million for Toy Story 3. It just has all the right things going for it being Pixar, a sequel and a long-awaited sequel. Even the last Indiana Jones made $100 million and it wasn’t that good.

        Although it will take a hit because of another family film coming out, the The Karate Kid will easily be next with $28-30 million. Third should be The A-Team which will fall the usually 50 percent and land at about $18 million.

        The fourth spot is tough. My gut is to say Jonah Hex will tank, but comic-based films tend not to totally flame out. I’m going to guess $10 million to balance out those two forces. The reason Shrek Forever After won’t beat it even if it does tank is because not only is Toy Story 3 competition, but “Shrek” has to get yanked out of theaters to accommodate it.

        1. 1. Toy Story 3
        2. 2. The Karate Kid
        3. 3. The A-Team 
        4. 4. Jonah Hex
        5. 5. Shrek Forever After

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