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Box Office Wizard (6.24.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction contest. It gives the average Tom, Dick or Merlin the chance to prove his or her worth. Entering is simple, so why not get give it a try? Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

This is Week 23. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comment Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comment section count. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).


Last Weekend's Top Five 

1. Green Lantern - $53.1 M ... $53.1 M 
2. Super 8 - $21.4 M ... $73 M 
3. Mr. Popper's Penguins - $18.4 M ... $18.4 M 
4. X-Men: First Class - $11.9 M ... $120.3 M 
5. The Hangover Part II - $10 M ... $233.1 M

Week #22 Wizard(s): Cinemus, Simonious, Kieran - 4 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 69 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian - 61%

I failed you all in my relentless faith in Kung Fu Panda 2 staying in the top five. Never again will I dishonor myself.


Cinemus the Predictor - 69 (64/110 - 58%)
Herpious Derpious - 66 (61/110 - 55%)
Simonius Saysian - 60 (55/90 - 61%)
Kieran - 56 (56/110 - 51%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Cars 2
Directed by John Lasseter, Brad Lewis
Written by John Lasseter, Brad Lewis, Dan Fogelman, Ben Queen
Starring: (voices) Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy, Michael Caine, Bonnie Hunt
Genre: Family/Action/Adventure

Distributor: Disney
Release: 4,115 theaters 

Bad Teacher
Directed by Jake Kasdan
Written by Gene Stupnitsky, Lee Eisenberg
Starring: Cameron Diaz, Jason Segel, Justin Timberlake, Phyllis Smith
Genre: Comedy

Distributor: Sony/Columbia
Release: 3,049 theaters 


My Box Office Predictions

There’s no beating a Pixar film. I might have consistently overrated Kung Fu Panda 2 all summer so far, but I won’t be overestimating Cars 2. Pixar films have made consistently between $60-70 million. If the negative reviews kick in, that’s the total you’ll see Sunday. If momentum from Toy Story 3 kicks in, closer to $80 million seems possible, but without the extra boost from adults without families, it would seem unlikely.

This week’s tough call comes in second place. The success of R-rated comedies and Diaz’s profile would seem to prime the box office for a strong take. This film definitely appeals to all adults and has been marketed well, but I’m hesitant. Bridesmaids opened to $26 million thanks to great reviews and these are mixed. Calculate a 55 percent decrease from last weekend and Green Lantern seems poised to eek it out with $25 million. The film has had negative reviews and will drop substantially, but no new action offerings are there to take a pre-teen and teenage audience. Bad Teacher will likely only win second if “Lantern” plummets. I suspect the comedy will take $20-25 million.

Super 8 held up well in its second week and if that holds, it could be in for a bit longer of a ride in the top five. It will easily grab fourth with $12-14 million. Mr. Popper’s Penguins should have enough to hold off all the other top 10 films, which will dip under $10 million, right about where “Popper’s” ought to be.

1. Cars 2
2. Green Lantern
3. Bad Teacher
4. Super 8
5. Mr. Popper’s Penguins


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