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Box Office Wizard (7.8.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction contest. It gives the average Tom, Dick or Merlin the chance to prove his or her worth. Entering is simple, so why not get give it a try? Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

This is Week 24. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comment Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comment section count. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).


Top Five From Weekend 6/24

1. Cars 2
2. Bad Teacher
3. Green Lantern
4. Super 8
5. Mr. Popper's Penguins

Week #23 Wizard(s): Cinemus, Herpious, Kieran - 3 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 69 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian - 61%

I failed you all in my relentless faith in Kung Fu Panda 2 staying in the top five. Never again will I dishonor myself.


Cinemus the Predictor - 72 (67/115 - 58%)
Herpious Derpious - 69 (64/115 - 55%)
Simonius Saysian - 60 (55/90 - 61%)
Kieran - 59 (59/115 - 51%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Directed by Frank Coraci
Written by Nick Bakay, Rock Reuben, Kevin James, Jay Scherick and David Ronn
Starring: Kevin James, Rosario Dawson, Leslie Bibb
Genre: Comedy/Family

Distributor: Sony/Columbia
Release: 3,482 theaters 

Horrible Bosses
Directed by Seth Gordon
Written by Michael Markowitz, John Francis Daley, Jonathan Goldstein
Starring: Jason Bateman, Jason Sudeikis, Charlie Day, Jennifer Aniston, Kevin Spacey, Colin Farrell
Genre: Comedy

Distributor: Warner Bros. (New Line)
Release: 3,040 theaters 


My Box Office Predictions

There’s been a lot of turnover at the top this summer, but with only comedy offerings this weekend, there will be a repeat. Transformers: Dark of the Moon made nearly $100 million Friday through Sunday of last weekend, so $45-50 million is likely in store, easily enough to beat the newcomers.

Of the newcomers, I’m going to go with recent trends and select Horrible Bosses to edge out Zookeeper. What I mean is that the summer’s three big R-rated comedies have all opened with more than $20 million. Bad Teacher took $30 million and its reviews don’t compare to “Bosses.” Cameron Diaz at the focal point helped that film to do better than most of its ilk, however, so I’m thinking closer to $25 million.

Zookeeper boasts Kevin James, who did score $30 million with Paul Blart: Mall Cop. If he can pull off another anomaly, I will be gladly proven wrong. With Jim Carrey making $18 million in a family-centered comedy about animals just a few weeks ago in Mr. Popper’s Penguins, I think James could help this one do a little over $20 million. Reviews are awful and there are plenty of family alternatives out there right now.

Cars 2 should see a smaller decline in business it its third week. I think it should make $10-15 million.

In last place we have a little bit of a battle. With Horrible Bosses as direct competition, I’m not sure Bad Teacher can stay in the top five. Despite bad reviews, I think Larry Crowne can hang around and decline less steeply as the only true romantic comedy option. It will be neck-and-neck, however.

1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
2. Horrible Bosses
3. Zookeeper
4. Cars 2
5. Larry Crowne


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