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Box Office Wizard (8.5.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s Movie Box Office Prediction Contest. Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

This is Week 28. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comments Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comments section qualify. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).


Top Five From Last Weekend

1. Cowboys & Aliens - $36.4 M ... $36.4 M 
2. The Smurfs - $35.6 M ... $35.6 M 
3. Captain America: The First Avenger - $25.5 M ... $117.4 M 
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $21.9 M ... $318.5 M 
5. Crazy, Stupid, Love - $19.1 M ... $19.1 M

Week #27 Wizard(s): Cinemus, Herpious - 3 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor (me) - 84 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian - 61%

What happened to half or regular wizarding contigent? No real change this week, but thankfully 'dem Cowboys and Aliens beat out the frickin' Smurfs.


Cinemus the Predictor - 84 (79/135 - 58%)
Herpious Derpious - 83 (78/135 - 57%)
Kieran - 70 (70/130 - 54%)
Simonius Saysian - 69 (64/105 - 61%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Directed by Rupert Wyatt
Written by Rick Jaffa, Jamie Moss and Amanda Silver, Pierre Boulle (“La planete des singes”)
Starring: James Franco, Freida Pinto, Andy Serkis, Brian Cox
Genre: Action/Sci Fi

Distributor: Fox
Release: 3,648 theaters 

The Change-Up
Directed by David Dobkin
Written by Jon Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Jason Bateman, Ryan Reynolds, Olivia Wilde, Leslie Mann
Genre: Comedy

Distributor: Universal
Release: 2,913 theaters  


My Box Office Predictions

Oh, these apes will definitely rise … expect the planet and the box office to both be conquered come Sunday. With the bar set low last weekend and some great reviews, Rise of the Planet of the Apes should be your new champion and with just north of $40 million in my estimation.

Without any other family competition moving in and school still out, the deadlock between The Smurfs and Cowboys & Aliens will be won by the blue team. Even with only $35 million last weekend, the sci-fi Western should fall hard. Enough so that The Change-Up should beat it. Despite the cheesy premise that will have some eyes rolling at this one, there’s enough of a draw here to make the standard near-$20 million that most summer comedies have scrounged up.

Even if it disappoints, the body-swap comedy has a lot more going for it as a new release than Cowboys & Aliens does in its second week. Even well-reviewed movies have fallen fast this summer with an appealing film out every single week. Expect $15 million or so. Captain America: The First Avenger has been playing that one close, so that should slide in just below it.

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. The Smurfs
3. The Change-Up
4. Cowboys & Aliens
5. Captain America: The First Avenger



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