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Box Office Wizard (9.16.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s Movie Box Office Prediction Contest. Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

This is Week 34. 

Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comments Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage.  WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS???  Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

-Only submissions in the comments section qualify. 
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends. 
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons. 

-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).


Top Five From Last Weekend

1. Contagion - $22.4 ... $22.4 
2. The Help - $8.9 M ... $132.3 M 
3. Warrior - $5.2 M ... $5.2 M 
4. The Debt - $4.7 M ... $21.8 M 
5. Colombiana - $3.9 M ... $29.7 M

Week #33 Wizard(s): Cinemus and Kieran - 4 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus the Predictor - 94 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s):  Simonious Saysian - 57%

Bad box-office numbers again, but a bit of order restored. Only "Apes" losing to Colombiana threw things off in the top five. Warrior did come in third, but with half as much money as I expected. As a result, I regain the lead for now and am within 3 pts of tying my 97 in 34 weeks from last year. Might be hard to do it this week ...


Cinemus the Predictor - 94 (89/165 - 54%)
Herpious Derpious - 92 (87/165 - 53%)
Kieran - 79 (79/160 - 49%)
Simonius Saysian - 74 (69/120 - 57%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
PeeWee the Purple - 9 (4/15 - 27%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)
Alex M - 2 (2/10 - 20%)


2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

Directed by Nicolas Winding Refn
Written by Hossein Amini, James Sallis (book)
Starring: Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Bryan Cranston, Christina Hendricks
Genre: Action/Drama
Distributor: FilmDistrict
Release: 2,886 theaters 

I Don't Know How She Does It
Directed by Douglas McGrath
Written by Aline Brosh McKenna, Allison Pearson (novel)
Starring: Sarah Jessica Parker, Pierce Brosnan, Kelsey Grammer, Greg Kinnear
Genre: Romance/Comedy

Distributor: The Weinstein Co.
Release: 2,476 theaters 

Straw Dogs
Directed by Rod Lurie
Written by Rod Lurie, David Zelag Goodman and Sam Peckinpah (1971 film), Gordon Williams (novel)
Starring: James Marsden, Kate Bosworth, Alexander Skarsgård
Genre: Thriller

Distributor: Sony/Screen Gems
Release: 2,408 theaters  

The Lion King in 3D
Directed by Roger Allers, Rob Minkoff
Written by 29 people
Starring: (voices) Matthew Broderick, Moira Kelly, James Earl Jones, Jeremy Irons, Nathan Lane
Genre: Animation/Family
Distributor: Disney
Release: 2,330 theaters 

My Box Office Predictions

’m impressed by the buzz so far and I truly think The Lion King in 3D will be this weekend’s winner with close to $20 million. The animation/family market has been incredibly thin for several weeks now and not just kids want to see this one. This one will not have to wait long to be king.

In second I’m going to take a fly on Ryan Gosling and Drive. It’s not a typical action film from a big distributor with big-name stars, so it won’t make a lot of money, but with all the buzz I really think it could make the upper echelon among films with limited commercial appeal, about $12-15 million, which puts it awfully close to Contagion, which should be back strong again with a similar number but closer to $12 million.

In fourth I’m placing my bet with I Don’t Know How She Does It. The demographic is very specific and many women will undoubtedly be swept up by the Sex and the City similarities. In general, I think it has more box-office upside than Straw Dogs, which ought to find enough of an audience for $8 million. The Help should just  miss out on another week on the leaderboard.

1. The Lion King in 3D
2. Drive
3. Contagion
4. I Don’t Know How She Does It
5. Straw Dogs


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