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Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s Movie Box Office Prediction Contest. Just read through this post and tell us your top five box office predicted finishers for this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.
This is Week 32.
Contest Rules: To qualify, entries must be submitted in the Comments Section. For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “Resident Evil: Afterthought 3D” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn one point. The movie selection must be in its correct rank to earn a point. Points are cumulative. We will keep track of your correct percentage. WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? Leave your official wizard name in the Comment Section with your entry. Be creative. Example names are in our Wizarding Leaderboard.
How scoring works: So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever has the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.
Official Scoring/The Fine Print:
-Only submissions in the comments section qualify.
-Predictions must be in by Noon (in the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up and Noon Friday on Holiday weekends.
-Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources publish Sunday afternoons.
-For holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
-Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely).
Top Five From Last Weekend
1. The Help - $14.5 M ... $96.8 M
2. Colombiana - $10.4 M ... $10.4 M
3. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $8.8 M ... $148.6 M
4. Don't Be Afraid of the Dark - $8.5 M ... $8.5 M
5. Our Idiot Brother - $7 M ... $7 M
Week #31 Wizard(s): Simonious - 3 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Cinemus and Herpious - 89 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s): Simonious Saysian - 59%
Cinemus the Predictor - 90 (85/155 - 55%)
Herpious Derpious - 90 (85/155 - 55%)
Kieran - 75 (75/150 - 50%)
Simonius Saysian - 73 (68/115 - 59%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 20 (15/35 - 43%)
MacGumblebug the Third - 9 (4/10) - 40%)
PeeWee the Purple - 8 (3/10 - 30%)
Julian - 7 (7/15 - 48%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)
Alex M - 2 (2/10 - 20%)
BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME
2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks
New Contenders this Weekend
Directed by Gonzalo López-Gallego
Written by Brian Miller, Cory Goodman
Genre: Horror/Sci Fi
Distributor: The Weinstein Co./Dimension
Release: 3,328 theaters
Shark Night 3D
Directed by David R. Ellis
Written by Will Hayes and Jesse Studenberg
Starring: Sara Paxton, Dustin Milligan, Joel Moore, Katharine McPhee
Release: 2,806 theaters
The Debt (opened Wed.)
Directed by John Madden
Written by Matthew Vaughn, Jane Goldman and Peter Straughan, Assaf Bernstein and Ido Rosenblum (Israeli film)
Starring: Jessica Chastain, Helen Mirren, Sam Worthington, Marton Csokas
Distributor: Focus Features
Release: 1,826 theaters
My Box Office Predictions
I was initially skeptical, but with a distribution of more than 3,300 theaters, I think Apollo 18 will beat out The Help. Business for the champion of the past two weeks should barely move from its $14 million from last weekend thanks to Labor Day, but given the success of found footage horror, I boldly think the film will somehow manage $15-20 million: close to, but not quite the levels of last year’s The Last Exorcism.
Everything else should make less than $10 million. That was about the mark hit by last year’s campy horror film Piranha 3D, so I think Shark Night 3D will roll up just below that with $8-10 million.
Beyond that, it’s tough. When little competition hits the market, it’s tough to predict whether the returners will drop in typical fashion or hang around a bit longer. I think Rise of the Planet of the Apes has another good weekend in it, so I’m slotting it fourth. I’m also going to give Colombiana the edge over The Debt. My gut says Zoe Saldana’s action film will drop to about $7 million, whereas The Debt will only make $6 million thanks to few screens and an early Wednesday opening.
1. Apollo 18
2. The Help
3. Shark Night 3D
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes