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Welcome to the NEW Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction competition and your chance every week to feel like a flippin’ genius – nay – wizard. Entering is and always has been simple. You read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be that weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.
Want five bonus points? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.
Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.
This is Week 2.
How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “The Land Before Time XXVI,” to rank second in the box office that weekend and it comes in second), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat 0, it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.
So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.
Official Scoring/The Fine Print:
Last Week’s Top Five
1. True Grit – $15.0M (weekend)…$110.4M (gross)
2. Little Fockers – $13.7M…$123.9M
3. Season of the Witch – $10.7M…$10.7M
4. Tron Legacy – $9.8M…$147.9M
5. Black Swan – $8.3M…$61.4M
Week #1 Wizard(s): Steven C – 4 pts
Current Cumulative Box Office Wizard(s): Lord Jamven Serpenthelm – 8 pts
Current Percentage Box Office Wizard(s): None. Must Play 8 Weeks.
I did the best last weekend giving Season of the Witch enough credit to finish third, which it did. Props to Jay (Lord Jamven) for predicting Black Swan’s emergence into the top 10. He leads, however, because I failed to provide my wizard name, which I shall announce for you all.
I am Cinemus the Predictor.
Boom. Five points to me next week.
WIZARD LEADERBOARD (Cumulative Pts)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm – 8 (3/5 – 60%)
Herpious Derpious – 7 (2/5 – 40%)
Steven C – 4 (4/5 – 80%)
Kieran – 2 (2/5 – 40%)
BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME
2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays – 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C – 97 pts in 34 weeks
New Contenders this Weekend
The Green Hornet
Directed by Michel Gondry
Written by Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, George W. Trendle (radio series)
Starring: Seth Rogen, Jay Chou, Christoph Waltz, Cameron Diaz
Genre: Action Comedy
Release: 3,584 theaters
Directed by Ron Howard
Written by Allan Loeb
Starring: Vince Vaughn, Kevin James, Jennifer Connelly, Winona Ryder
Release: 2,941 theaters
My Box Office Predictions
I have a feeling there will be some strong debuts at this box office. While Rogen is not a huge draw, I think in the trappings of The Green Hornet he’s much more appealing to the masses. As for The Dilemma, we know the kind of money Vaughn’s films pull in and Kevin James is the January king of comedy, scoring more than $30 million for Paul Blart: Mall Cop a couple years back.
History, however, gives us no basis for star-studded romantic comedy in January. Feburary? Of course. But successful romantic comedies never debut here. So my inkling is to go with the number of theaters and give The Green Hornet the edge over The Dilemma. $30 million to $25 million, though I could see results finishing closer to $35 and $30 million being possible given the lack of mainstream movies the last few weeks.
True Grit will continue to lead the rest of the pack with $9-10 million. Below it, however, will be some change. Black Swan danced into the top five last week and will find itself in even more theaters come Friday. I expect it to stay around $8 million and pass Little Fockers, which should hold on for fifth.
1. The Green Hornet
2. The Dilemma
3. True Grit
4. Black Swan
5. Little Fockers