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Ballots for the 70th Annual Golden Globe Awards were required to be turned in the day before the Oscar nominations were announced, which means to predict winners, we must revert back to our “Argo and Zero Dark Thirty are frontrunners” mindset.
Lincoln, too, can win Best Drama. It’s all pretty wide open, which makes predicting challenging and typically dreadful ceremony more enticing to watch.
But this is our first big ceremony of Phase 2 (sorry, BFCAs), and it could say a surprising amount in a year when anything seems possible.
Here are our guesses:
Best Picture — Drama
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
Predicted winner: Argo
An old-fashioned Hollywood story told well. Is Lincoln too American for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association? It’s an idea we’ve wondered about for some time and came around to even more after Spielberg’s BAFTA snub. Argo is an easy consensus choice.
Best Actress — Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Predicted winner: Jessica Chastain
An obligatory prize for Kathryn Bigelow’s film and a chance to get a hot new superstar on the big stage. A borderline slam dunk choice and Chastain’s chance to give a speech Academy voters won’t forget.
Best Actor — Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Predicted winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
Another slam dunk choice. No one else stands a chance.
Best Picture — Comedy or Musical
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silver Linings Playbook
Predicted winner: Les Miserables
Big, bold musical vs. smaller intimate comedy. Silver Linings Playbook could win here, but with this group’s track record, we’re picking Tom Hooper’s film.
Best Actress — Comedy or Musical
Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Predicted winner: Jennifer Lawrence
I can definitely see a big upset happening here. Lawrence is lovely and, after The Hunger Games, a major star. But Meryl Streep is always a tough beat with this crowd. Voters might even be tempted to get Dame Maggie Smith up on the stage. But Lawrence is the Oscar contender, and her film is clearly HFPA-approved. Gotta go with her.
Best Actor — Comedy or Musical
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Predicted winner: Hugh Jackman
This category is always ripe for a surprise, but that’s typically because there aren’t any strong nominees. This year, we see two—Cooper and Jackman. As with Best Picture, we're going for big and bold over something more character-driven.
Best Animated Feature Film
Rise of the Guardians
Predicted winner: Frankenweenie
A very tough category. We could see Wreck-It Ralph or Brave taking home the trophy, but something about Tim Burton’s latest is calling to us. Not exactly an insightful analysis, but that’s all we’ve got. Sorry.
Best Foreign Language Film
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
The Intouchables (France)
Rust and Bone (France)
Predicted winner: The Intouchables
Another surprisingly tough category. Emmanuelle Riva’s miss for Best Actress — Drama really stands out to us here. Could it indicate a lack of support for Amour as a whole? That’s what we’re banking on. So Rust and Bone is the choice, right? Sure, Marion Cotillard’s nomination could carry Jacques Audiard’s film to the stage. But we're going with The Weinstein Co.’s film, which was stunningly left out of the Best Foreign Language Oscar race. But that’s the Academy. We like this film in a mild surprise here.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Predicted winner: Anne Hathaway
A simple, straightforward category.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Predicted winner: Leonardo DiCaprio
These guys love stars, and they love Django. Leo gets the nod over Christoph Waltz in a pretty wide-open race.
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Predicted winner: Ben Affleck
Kathryn Bigelow could get the nod after losing to James Cameron back in 2009, but splits are rare. We're on the Argo train, so we've gotta go with Ben.
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Chris Terrio, Argo
Predicted winner: Tony Kushner
Tarantino is our second choice, but the scope of Kushner’s work is hard to argue with.
Best Original Score
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
Tom Tykwer, Johnny Klimek, Reinhold Heil, Cloud Atlas
John Williams, Lincoln
Predicted winner: John Williams
We could see any of these scores winning, so we’ll go with the biggest name in the bunch (who happens to do the best work in the bunch).
Best Original Song
“For You,” Act of Valor
“Not Running Anymore,” Stand Up Guys
“Safe & Sound,” The Hunger Games
“Suddenly,” Les Miserables
Predicted winner: “Skyfall”
Adele. That’s all.